| 2010年松江区上海世博会传染病 风险评估分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王瑞平,郭晓芹,毕安华.2010年松江区上海世博会传染病 风险评估分析[J].疾病监测,2011,26(4):305-309. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王瑞平 郭晓芹 毕安华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.上海市松江区疾病预防控制中心,上海 松江 201620 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 识别和评估上海市松江区世博会期间潜在的传染病风险,为制定针对性的应急预案和工作方案提供基础资料和依据。
方法 通过专家现场评分,采用Delphi法识别和评估松江区世博会期间潜在的传染病风险,应用公式P(Risk)=L(likelyhood)I(impact)V(vulnerability)计算松江区世博会期间各种传染病风险的综合风险大小。
结果 10种传染病中风险最大的为流行性感冒,风险P得分为19.73;排在第2位的是感染性腹泻,风险P得分为14.40;排在3~10位的传染病依次为麻疹、霍乱、手足口病、普通感冒、甲型病毒性肝炎、痢疾、淋病和急性出血性结膜炎。
结论 世博会期间的公共卫生安全保障需要全区各相关部门的密切配合。本研究所获得的10种传染病风险大小及排序,为制定2010年上海世博会公共卫生安全保障工作预案和方案提供了依据和参考。
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| 关 键 词： | Delphi法 2010年上海世博会 传染病 风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-01-25 |
Communicable disease risk evaluation during 2010 Shanghai Expo in Songjiang district in Shanghai |
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| WANG Rui-ping
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GUO Xiao-qin
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BI An-hua.Communicable disease risk evaluation during 2010 Shanghai Expo in Songjiang district in Shanghai[J].Disease Surveillance,2011,26(4):305-309. |
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| Authors: | WANG Rui-ping GUO Xiao-qin BI An-hua |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Songjiang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 201620, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To identify and evaluate the potential communicable disease risk during 2010 Shanghai Expo in Songjiang district in Shanghai and provide baseline data and evidence for the development of the emergency response preparedness plan and public health protocol.Methods The identification and evaluation of potential communicable disease risk during Shanghai Expo was conducted by using by Delphi method,then the potential risk of 10 communicable diseases were calculated by using the formula P（Risk）=L（likelyhood）＊I（impact）＊V（vulnerability）.Results Among 10 communicable diseases,the risk of influenza was highest with the P value of 19.73,followed by infectious diarrhea（P value=14.40,） measles,cholera,hand foot and mouth disease,common cold,hepatitis A,dysentery,gonorrhea and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis.Conclusion The public health safety during Shanghai Expo would depend on the close multi sectoral cooperation.The study result provided evidence for the development of public health preparedness plan and public health protocol during Shanghai Expo. |
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| Keywords: | Delphi method 2010 Shanghai Expo communicable disease risk evaluation |
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