| 地下综合管廊PPP项目风险预测研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 万阿志,方俊.地下综合管廊PPP项目风险预测研究[J].工程管理学报,2021,35(3):64-079. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 万阿志 方俊 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 武汉理工大学 土木工程与建筑学院 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了精准动态地预测地下综合管廊PPP项目风险，通过文献研究法和专家访谈法初步确定建设期风险影响因素，进一步通过PCA对风险影响因素进行删减并建立了指标评价体系，再运用层次分析法和熵权法进行主客观赋权，并对建设期整体风险进行评价。结合实际工程案例得到了24个风险评价样本，其中16个样本作为训练集，8个样本作为测试集，将两组样本输入到构建的PSO-SVM模型中，将风险预测值和实际值进行对比分析，结果表明，建立的风险预测模型预测结果准确度高、适用性好。
|
| 关 键 词： | 地下综合管廊 PPP 支持向量机 风险预测 |
Study on the Risk-Prediction of the PPP Project of Underground Utility Tunnel |
| |
| WAN A-zhi,FANG Jun.Study on the Risk-Prediction of the PPP Project of Underground Utility Tunnel[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2021,35(3):64-079. |
| |
| Authors: | WAN A-zhi FANG Jun |
| |
| Affiliation: | School of Civil Engineering and Architecture，Wuhan University of Technology |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to accurately and dynamically predict the risks of PPP projects in underground utility tunnels, the risk influencing factors during the construction period were preliminarily determined by literature research and expert interview. Then, the risk influencing factors were deleted by PCA, and an index evaluation system was established. After that, the AHP and entropy weight method were used to give subjective and objective weights, and the overall risks during the construction period were evaluated. Combined with practical engineering cases, 24 risk assessment samples were obtained, including 16 samples as training sets and 8 samples as test sets. Finally, the two groups of samples were input into the constructed PSO-SVM model, and the risk prediction values were compared with the actual values. The results show that the established risk prediction model has high accuracy and good applicability. |
| |
| Keywords: | underground utility tunnel PPP SVM risk forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《工程管理学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《工程管理学报》下载全文 |
|
