| 装配式建筑技能人才需求分析研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐寅,陈敏,蒋家健,黄琳琳.装配式建筑技能人才需求分析研究[J].工程管理学报,2018,0(2):24-029. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐寅 陈敏 蒋家健 黄琳琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1,2,3,4. 南通大学 建筑工程学院;1. 上海交通大学 船舶海洋与建筑工程学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 在利用典型工程测算的人工消耗量下降幅度数据的基础上，选用线性回归模型与灰色 GM（1，1）模型分别进行建筑业从业人员数量预测，但鉴于两种模型的局限性，引入线性回归与灰色预测组合模型进行预测，并通过 3 种预测方法结果的对比，论证了组合模型预测结果的合理性。选取 2020 年与 2025 年两个典型时间点，预测建筑业从业人员需求量。考虑装配式建筑比例和现场作业人员比例，计算因发展装配式建筑减少现场作业人员的用工量，结合预测数据得出装配式建筑技能人才需求量，并根据测算结果提出了相应的建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 装配式建筑 技能人才 线性回归模型 灰色模型 |
Research on the Demand Analysis of Technology Talents forPrefabricated Construction |
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| TANG Yin,CHEN Min,JIANG Jia-jian,HUANG Lin-lin.Research on the Demand Analysis of Technology Talents forPrefabricated Construction[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2018,0(2):24-029. |
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| Authors: | TANG Yin CHEN Min JIANG Jia-jian HUANG Lin-lin |
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| Affiliation: | 1,2,3,4. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture，Nantong University;1. School of Marine And Architectural Engineering，Shanghai Jiao Tong University |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data regarding the decline range of manual consumption calculated by the classical engineeringmeasurement method，this paper employs linear regression model and gray GM（1，1）model to forecast the number of constructionindustry employees. However，considering the limitations of the two models，this paper integrates linear regression model and grayprediction model to improve the prediction accuracy. And the rationality of the combined model is proved through the comparison ofthe results generated from the three prediction methods. Two typical time points of 2020 and 2025 were selected to forecast thedemand of construction industry employees. Considering the proportion of prefabricated construction and the proportion of on-siteoperations，this paper calculates the reduced on-site operations because of the development of prefabricated construction. In addition,the macroeconomic data was used to obtain the demand of technology talents of prefabricated construction. The correspondingsuggestions was then put forward according to the calculation results. |
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| Keywords: | prefabricated construction technology talents linear regression model gray model |
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