| 球罐BLEVE碎片抛射的Monte-Carlo分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 钱新明,徐亚博,刘振翼.球罐BLEVE碎片抛射的Monte-Carlo分析[J].化工学报,2009,60(4):1057-1061. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钱新明 徐亚博 刘振翼 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室，北京 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 多米诺效应是引发化工厂发生重大灾害性事故的主要原因之一，其总后果的严重性远远超过初始事故后果的严重性。目前研究多米诺效应主要考虑热辐射、超压和碎片3种扩展向量,其中爆炸碎片具有很大的随机性，而且破坏后果常常很严重。对爆炸碎片的研究是个热点和难题。本文以墨西哥城液化石油气爆炸事故中球罐发生沸腾液体扩展为蒸气云爆炸（BLEVE）为例，通过Monte-Carlo方法模拟，利用有关的数据和资料确定爆炸碎片产生和飞行中的不确定性参数的概率密度分布，从而计算出碎片的抛射范围。并在此基础上，考虑目标容器和风的影响，将二维轨迹方程扩展为三维方程，并计算得到在给定位置处的目标容器受到碎片冲击的概率。本文的研究结果对于定量评价球罐发生BLEVE之后碎片所造成的危险分析具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 球罐 碎片 BLEVE Monte-Carlo法 不确定性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-11-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009-1-14
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Monte-Carlo analysis of fragments projectile from spherical tank BLEVE |
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| QIAN Xinming,XU Yabo,LIU Zhenyi.Monte-Carlo analysis of fragments projectile from spherical tank BLEVE[J].Journal of Chemical Industry and Engineering(China),2009,60(4):1057-1061. |
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| Authors: | QIAN Xinming XU Yabo LIU Zhenyi |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology;Beijing Institute of Technology;Beijing 100081;China |
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| Abstract: | Domino effect is a well-known cause of major accidents in chemical and process industries, resulting in overall consequences more severe than those of a primary event.Heat radiation, blast wave overpressure and fragment projection are three major escalation vectors.The generation and flight of fragments are stochastic and can cause more severe hazards than those by heat and overpressure.The study on the fragments from explosion is a hot topic and involves much difficulty.The present work took a spherical tank in Mexico City with boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) as an example.The probability distribution density of uncertain parameters in the generation and flight of fragment was determined by the data from reference, and simulated by the Monte-Carlo method.Then the projectile distance of fragment was calculated. On this basis, concerning the three-dimensional fragment trajectory, the influence of the target geometry and wind, the probability of impact of a fragment on the target of a known shape and at a given position with respect to the source point was obtained.It is important to assess the complex risk and hazards of fragment of spherical tank BLEVE quantitatively. |
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| Keywords: | spherical tank fragment BLEVE Monte-Carlo method uncertainty |
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