| 坍塌事故风险演化复杂网络模型及消减对策研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 罗秋实,杨高升.坍塌事故风险演化复杂网络模型及消减对策研究[J].工程管理学报,2020,34(4):28-033. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 罗秋实 杨高升 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 河海大学 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究项目;国家自然科学基金 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为预防坍塌事故，促进工程建设安全，采用事故案例分析法从116起较大及以上坍塌事故中识别出76个风险，提取出157条事故链，构建坍塌事故风险演化网络（CREN）模型；运用Pajek分析拓扑特性以明确坍塌事故风险演化规律；基于免疫理论对CREN的网络效率进行仿真，明确最优免疫策略和关键风险点；根据分析结果为坍塌事故的预防和风险消减提出针对性对策。研究结果表明:CREN具有无标度和小世界特性；最优免疫策略是DC免疫策略；控制违章作业子系统可使CREN网络效率降低近40%；坍塌事故是多种类型坍塌事故衍生的结果。
|
| 关 键 词： | 复杂网络 坍塌事故 风险演化 免疫策略 风险消减 |
Research on Complex Network Model of Collapse Accident RiskEvolution and Risk Mitigation Countermeasures |
| |
| LUO Qiu-shi,YANG Gao-sheng.Research on Complex Network Model of Collapse Accident RiskEvolution and Risk Mitigation Countermeasures[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2020,34(4):28-033. |
| |
| Authors: | LUO Qiu-shi YANG Gao-sheng |
| |
| Affiliation: | Hohai University |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to prevent collapse accidents and promote engineering safety，the method of accident case analysis was used to identify 76 types of risks from 116 large and above collapse accidents. On this basis, 157 accident paths were extracted to construct a collapse risk evolution network（CREN）model；pajek was used to identify the evolutionary patterns of the collapse accident risks by analyzing topological characteristics；the network efficiency of CREN was simulated based on immune theory to clarify the optimal immunization strategy and key risks；based on the results，targeted countermeasures for preventing collapse accidents and achieving risk mitigation were put forward. The results show that:CREN has scale-free and small-world nature；the optimal immunization strategy is the DC immunization strategy；controlling the illegal operation subsystem can reduce the efficiency of CREN network by nearly 40%；collapse accidents are the result of multiple types of collapse accidents. |
| |
| Keywords: | complex network collapse accident risk evolution immunization theory risk mitigation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《工程管理学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《工程管理学报》下载全文 |
