| 复合实物期权在风电项目投资评估中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 章恒全,蒋艳红. 复合实物期权在风电项目投资评估中的应用[J]. 工程管理学报, 2013, 0(2): 26-030 |
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| 作者姓名： | 章恒全 蒋艳红 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学 商学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 与传统的能源发电投资相比，风电项目投资存在更多风险因素，从而带来了更大的不确定性，为确保风电项目投资的效益，无论对风电项目投资者而言，还是从我国风能资源发展角度出发，都迫切需要一个可量化风险的投资决策工具来辅助指导投资者做出科学的投资决策。基于实物期权理论的投资决策方法能有效地处理投资中各种风险因素带来的不确定性，弥补传统NPV 法在这方面的不足，是一种更为科学、合理的投资决策评价方法。针对风电项目工程具有的复合实物期权特性，提出了在风电项目投资决策中引入复合实物期权思路和模型，并以实例讨论了Geske 复合期权定价模型的应用方法，验证了实物期权方法在评估风电项目投资项目价值时的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 风电项目投资 复合实物期权 Geske 模型 |
Application of Compound Real Option in the Assessment of the Wind Power Investment |
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| ZHANG Heng-quan,JIANG Yan-hong. Application of Compound Real Option in the Assessment of the Wind Power Investment[J]. Journal of Engineering Management, 2013, 0(2): 26-030 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Heng-quan JIANG Yan-hong |
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| Affiliation: | School of Business，Hohai University |
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| Abstract: | Compared with the traditional energy investment，wind power investment has more risk factors，thus bringing greater uncertainty. In order to ensure the benefits of wind power investment，whatever for wind power investors，or for the development of wind energy resources of our country，an investment decision-making tool which can quantify the risk to assist guide investors in making scientific investment decision is urgently needed. The investment decision method based on the real options theory can effectively deal with the investment uncertainty that comes from all kinds of risk factors，and can make up for shortage of the traditional NPV method in this regard. It is a more scientific and reasonable investment decision evaluation method. According to the compound real option characteristics of the wind power works，the idea of introducing compound real options thought and model to the investment decision of the wind power is given，and then the application method of Geske compound option pricing model is discussed. The effectiveness of the real option method in the assessment of wind power investment project value is verified. |
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| Keywords: | wind power investment compound real option Geske model |
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