| 长江流域干旱时空变化特征及演变趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄涛,徐力刚,范宏翔,孟元可.长江流域干旱时空变化特征及演变趋势[J].环境科学研究,2018,31(10):1677-1684. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄涛 徐力刚 范宏翔 孟元可 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（No.41371121，41771235）；江西省重点研发计划项目（No.20171BBH80015） |
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| 摘 要： | 干旱通常被认为是我国最严重的自然灾害之一，其造成的经济损失十分巨大.长江流域作为典型的湿润-半湿润区，干湿交替明显，干旱事件时空分布特征较为复杂.为了深入认识和理解长江流域气象干旱现状及其特征，探究干旱事件发生规律，采用长江流域1951-2015年PDSI（Palmer drought severity index，帕尔默干旱指数，运用Mann-Kendall检验、EEMD（ensemble empirical mode decomposition，集合经验模分解）、REOF（rotation empirical orthogonal function，旋转经验正交函数分解）、森斜率估算等分析方法，探讨长江流域干旱面积时间变化特征、干湿情景时空分布特征以及变化趋势.结果表明:1951-2015年，长江流域发生季节性干旱的面积整体呈扩大趋势，2000年后该趋势有所减缓.流域内呈现6个明显的干湿空间分布型，2000年后流域的东南部呈变旱态势，整体而言，流域内"南涝北旱"特征十分明显.未来，长江流域整体有变湿的趋势，西北部更旱，东北部变湿，南部以及东南部PDSI上升趋势明显，有发生旱涝急转的可能.
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| 关 键 词： | 长江流域 干旱 时空分布 演变趋势 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/2/8 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/5/10 0:00:00 |
Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics and the Evolution Trends of Droughts in the Yangtze River Basin |
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| HUANG Tao,XU Ligang,FAN Hongxiang and MENG Yuanke.Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics and the Evolution Trends of Droughts in the Yangtze River Basin[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2018,31(10):1677-1684. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Tao XU Ligang FAN Hongxiang and MENG Yuanke |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Science, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China3.Office of Mountain-River-Lake Development Committee of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330046, China4.School of Geography Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China |
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| Abstract: | Drought is usually regarded as one of the most serious natural disasters in China. The economic losses caused by drought are huge. As a typical humid and semi-humid region, the Yangtze River Basin is characterized by dry-wet alternation. Meanwhile, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought events are complicated. In order to understand the current situation and characteristics of meteorological droughts in the Yangtze River Basin and figure out the occurrence regularity of drought events, the grid data of Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in the Yangtze River Basin over 1951-2015 years were used in this research. By using the Mann-Kendall test, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition, the rotation empirical orthogonal function decomposition and slope estimation, the temporal variation characteristics of drought area, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of dry and wet status and trends were obtained. The results showed that over the past 65 years, the drought area in the Yangtze River Basin has shown an upward trend, which slowed down after 2000. There are six obvious spatial distribution patterns of dry and wet characteristics in the Yangtze River Basin. After 2000, the southeast part of the basin became dry. On the whole, the characteristics of 'southern flood and northern drought' were obvious. In the future, the Yangtze River Basin will generally get wetter, but the north-west will be dryer while the northeast becomes wetter. The upward trend of PDSI in the south and southeast of the Yangtze River Basin is obvious, and there is a possibility of a sharp turn from drought to flood. The results have an important guiding significance on the formulation of scientific and rational measures for drought disaster prevention, on the regulation of effective utilization of water resources and on slowing the regions ecological and environmental problems. |
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| Keywords: | the Yangtze River Basin drought spatial-temporal distribution evolution trend |
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