| 基于熵权可拓物元模型的城市轨道交通线路运营风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘兵,李晓璐,张彭,朱广宇.基于熵权可拓物元模型的城市轨道交通线路运营风险评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(12):175-181. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘兵 李晓璐 张彭 朱广宇 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.北京交通大学 综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室，北京 100044；2.交通运输部 规划研究院，北京 100028） |
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| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC0802206-2, 2016YFB1200203-02）；中央高校基本业务费项目（2019JBM301） |
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| 摘 要： | 为全面、客观地了解城市轨道交通线路的运营风险，通过分析轨道交通线路历史故障的原因，构建了线路运营风险评价指标体系，并基于熵权可拓物元模型提出评价方法。该方法利用数理统计划分评价指标的经典域，利用熵权模型计算指标权重，利用可拓物元模型计算综合评价值和风险等级。结果表明:所构建的轨道交通线路运营风险评估指标体系切实可行；基于熵权可拓物元模型提出的评价方法能客观有效地评估线路运营风险，同时有助于有针对性地加强线路运营风险管理。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市轨道交通 风险评价 物元模型 熵权法 风险等级 |
Evaluationon operational risk of urban rail transit line based on entropy weight extension matter element model |
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| LIU Bing,LI Xiaolu,ZHANG Peng,ZHU Guangyu.Evaluationon operational risk of urban rail transit line based on entropy weight extension matter element model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(12):175-181. |
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| Authors: | LIU Bing LI Xiaolu ZHANG Peng ZHU Guangyu |
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| Affiliation: | (1.Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;2.Transport Planning and Research Institute,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to understand the operational risk of urban rail transit line comprehensively and objectively,an index system for evaluating theoperational risk of urban rail line was established through analyzing the causes of historical accidents occurring in the urban rail transit line,and an evaluation methodwas proposed based on the entropy weight extension matter element model.Based on the method of mathematical statistics,the classical domain of the evaluation indexes were divided,the index weights were calculated by using the entropy weight model,and the comprehensive evaluation value and risk grade were calculated by using the extension matter element model.The results showed that the proposed index systemfor the risk evaluation of rail transit line was feasible,and the evaluation method based on the entropy weight extension matter element model could evaluate the operational risk of urban rail lineobjectively and effectively.At the same time,it can help to strengthen the management on the operational risk of urban rail linein a targeted manner. |
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| Keywords: | urban rail transit risk evaluation matter element model entropy weight model risk grade |
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