| 基于正态分布区间数的综合能源系统效益评价研究 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张璐 张斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.武汉大学 经济与管理学院，武汉 430072 |
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| 摘 要： | 综合能源系统构成复杂，且系统内部指标数据种类繁杂，使得在对其进行综合效益评价的时候，由于指标信息的不完善，可能导致最终的评价结果出现误差，带来巨大的经济损失。根据综合能源系统的特点，提出采用基于正态分布区间数的多属性决策方法来解决效益评价信息不完全的问题，并利用期望—方差准则对方案进行排序并择优。最后，通过案例计算验证该方法在综合能源系统效益评价研究中的适用性和有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 综合能源系统 不确定性指标 综合评价 正态分布区间数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-12-01 |
Evaluation of the Integrated Energy System Effectiveness Based on the Normal Distribution Interval Number Method |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Economic and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China |
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| Abstract: | Integrated energy system is a complex system, and index data of internal system are also complicated, which can make index information incomplete. So when evaluating the comprehensive benefits, due to the incomplete index information, the final evaluation results will appear errors, which bring huge economic losses. Based on the characteristics of integrated energy systems, we used the multiple-attribute decision-making method based on the normal distribution interval number to solve the problem of benefit evaluation of incomplete information, and sorted the plans by expectation variance criterion. Finally, we verify the applicability and effectiveness of the method in the evaluation of integrated energy system by calculating a case. |
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