| 海外 EPC 项目风险评价模型的构建与应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 董彦辰,姜安民,李 旋,姚 静,谢湘赞.海外 EPC 项目风险评价模型的构建与应用研究[J].工程管理学报,2018,0(5):103-108. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董彦辰 姜安民 李 旋 姚 静 谢湘赞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1,2,3,4,5. 湖南城建职业技术学院;1,2. 中南林业科技大学 土木工程学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着海外 EPC 项目的增多，人们对其风险的管理也愈发重视，对风险管理的成败直接影响项目的顺利进行。对海外 EPC 项目主要风险进行分析、归类，建立较为完善的评判指标体系；基于 AHP 及熵权法构建决策偏好组合赋权模型确定指标权重，基于该权重构建海外 EPC 项目风险多级模糊综合评判模型；运用该模型对某海外 EPC 项目进行评价并给出合理建议。在项目实施过程中，总体风险与评价结果较为接近，证明了该模型有效，能够对海外 EPC 项目做出准确评价。
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| 关 键 词： | 海外 EPC 项目 决策偏好 组合赋权 模糊综合评判法 |
Research on the Construction andApplication of Risk Assessment Model for Overseas EPC Projects |
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| DONG Yan-chen,JIANG An-min,LI Xuan,YAO Jing,XIE Xiang-zan.Research on the Construction andApplication of Risk Assessment Model for Overseas EPC Projects[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2018,0(5):103-108. |
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| Authors: | DONG Yan-chen JIANG An-min LI Xuan YAO Jing XIE Xiang-zan |
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| Affiliation: | 1,2,3,4,5. Hunan Urban Construction College;1,2. School of Civil Engineering，Central South University of Forestry and Technology |
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| Abstract: | With the development of overseas EPC projects，practitioners and scholars pay increasing attentions to the riskmanagement of these projects. The success or failure of risk management directly affects the performance of these projects. Thisstudy analyzes and classifies the main risks of overseas EPC projects and establishes an evaluation index system. A combinationweighting model of decision preference is established based on AHP and entropy weight to determine the index weight. A multi-levelfuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for overseas EPC project risk is constructed based on the index weight. This model is used toevaluate an overseas EPC project and provide reasonable suggestions. During the implementation of the project, the overall risk isrelatively close to the evaluation results, which indicates that the model is effective and can accurately evaluate the risks of overseasEPC projects. |
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| Keywords: | overseas EPC project decision-making preference combination weighting fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method |
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