| 基于简化Bow-tie模型的LOPA场景辨识与筛选方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘美晨,刘鹏,王海清,刘荫. 基于简化Bow-tie模型的LOPA场景辨识与筛选方法[J]. 化工进展, 2021, 40(11): 5988-5997. DOI: 10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2020-2385 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘美晨 刘鹏 王海清 刘荫 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国石油大学安全科学与工程系,山东青岛266580;国家管网东部原油储运有限公司邹城输油处,山东邹城273500 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 山东省自然科学基金(ZR201702160283) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 场景筛选是确保保护层分析（LOPA）有效性的关键，为准确筛选出需要进行LOPA分析的场景，本文在Bow-tie模型的基础上，提出了基于最大可信场景的场景辨识及筛选方法。首先，利用事故树与事件树建立以损失事件为中心的简化Bow-tie模型辨识分析对象的潜在危害，得到危害场景列表；其次，以最大可信场景辨识方法为基础对场景筛选方法进行改进，利用改进后的筛选方法对危害场景列表进行筛选，确定场景列表中最终需要进行LOPA分析的场景；最后，将此方法应用于某商储库105m3原油储罐风险分析的场景筛选中，并利用风险分析筛选软件（RAST）来验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。结果表明：所提方法能够较好地考虑设备实际运行情况，且根据企业内部的风险标准进行筛选，得到的实际筛选结果对后续的LOPA分析更具指导意义。
|
| 关 键 词： | 石油 安全 模型简化 场景筛选 Bow-tie模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-11-27 |
Research on LOPA scenarios identification and screening based on simplified Bow-tie model |
| |
| LIU Meichen,LIU Peng,WANG Haiqing,LIU Yin. Research on LOPA scenarios identification and screening based on simplified Bow-tie model[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2021, 40(11): 5988-5997. DOI: 10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2020-2385 |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Meichen LIU Peng WANG Haiqing LIU Yin |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Department of Safety Science & Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China
2.PipeChina Eastern Pipeline Company Zoucheng Oil Transportation Department, Zoucheng 273500, Shandong, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Scenarios screening is the key to ensure the effectiveness of layer of protection analysis (LOPA). To screen out the scenarios accurately which need to carry out the LOPA analysis, this paper proposes a scenarios identification and screening method based on the most credible scene on the basis of Bow-tie model. First, use the Fault tree and Event tree to establish a simplified Bow-tie model which centers on loss events to identify the potential hazards of the analysis object, and obtain a list of hazard scenarios. Secondly, improve the scenario screening method based on the most credible scenario identification method. Use the improved screening method to filter the list of hazardous scenarios. Simultaneously determine the scenarios that need carry on LOPA analysis in the scenarios list. Finally, apply this method in the 105m3 crude oil storage tank of a reserve storage and use risk analysis screening tool (RAST) to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can better consider the actual operation of the equipment and screen scenarios according to the internal risk standards of the enterprise, which makes the actual screening results obtained more instructive for the subsequent LOPA analysis. |
| |
| Keywords: | petroleum safety model reduction scenarios screening Bow-tie model |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《化工进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《化工进展》下载免费的PDF全文 |
