| 考虑新能源接入的智能电网运行风险评估技术 |
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| 引用本文： | 高道春,孙应毕,杜 凡,杨再鹤,陈根军.考虑新能源接入的智能电网运行风险评估技术[J].中州煤炭,2023,0(5):211-217，223. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高道春 孙应毕 杜 凡 杨再鹤 陈根军 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.云南电力调度控制中心调度科，云南 昆明 650011； 2.南京南瑞继保电气有限公司，江苏 南京 210000） |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省重点研发计划项目(BE2020688)； |
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| 摘 要： | 为了保证智能电网运行的安全性和可靠性，需要评估电网运行的风险。提出考虑新能源接入的智能电网运行风险评估技术，采用LHS-MCS方法抽取含新能源接入的配电网状态信息，根据抽取的信息构建电网运行风险评估指标体系，采用熵权法计算风险评估指标的权重，通过灰色关联理论确定指标的基本信度分配函数，融合多个基本信度分配函数获得智能电网在运行过程中发生风险的概率，实现智能电网运行风险的评估。实验结果表明，所提方法的并发能力高、评估精度高、可靠性高。
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| 关 键 词： | 新能源 智能电网 LHS-MCS方法 运行风险评估 灰色关联理论 |
Risk assessment technology for smart grid operation considering new energy access |
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| Gao Daochun,Sun Yingbi,Du Fan,Yang Zaihe,Chen Genjun. Risk assessment technology for smart grid operation considering new energy access[J].Zhongzhou Coal,2023,0(5):211-217，223. |
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| Authors: | Gao Daochun Sun Yingbi Du Fan Yang Zaihe Chen Genjun |
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| Affiliation: | （1.Dispatching Section of Yunnan Electric Power Dispatching Control Center，Kunming 650011，China；2.Nanjing Nanrui Jibao Electric Co.，Ltd.，Nanjing 210000，China） |
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| Abstract: | In order to ensure the safety and reliability of smart grid operation，the risk of grid operation needs to be assessed.A smart grid operation risk assessment technology considering new energy access was proposed.The LHS-MCS method is used to extract the status information of the distribution network including new energy access，and the power grid operation risk assessment index system is constructed according to the extracted information，and the entropy weight method is used to calculate the risk.The weight of the evaluation index is determined through the grey relational theory to determine the basic reliability distribution function of the indicator，and the probability of risk of smart grid operation during operation is obtained by integrating multiple basic reliability distribution functions，so as to realize the evaluation of smart grid operation risk.Experimental results show that the proposed method has high concurrency，high evaluation accuracy and high reliability. |
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| Keywords: | new energy smart grid LHS-MCS method operational risk assessment grey relational theory |
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