| 情景构建理论沿革及其对我国应急管理工作的启示 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王永明.情景构建理论沿革及其对我国应急管理工作的启示[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(9):57-62. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王永明 |
| |
| 作者单位： | （中共中央党校（国家行政学院），北京 100089） |
| |
| 基金项目： | * 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC0804900,2017YFC0804706）；国家自然科学基金项目（91324020）；2019年度中央党校（国家行政学院）校级科研青年课题项目（2019QN009） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 20世纪70年代，情景构建作为一种风险管理工具进入民防和应急管理实践者的视野，并逐步成为西方发达国家开展应急准备的核心策略，德国、英国、丹麦、荷兰等国家的风险评估规范均对情景构建这种方法给予了标准化要求。作为风险分析和应急准备工作的重要支撑策略，情景构建对我国当下的应急管理工作具有重要意义。首先，情景构建可以推进我国相关主体开展扎实的风险分析和风险沟通工作；其次，情景构建为相关主体提供了一种基于“风险”驱动的应急能力建设路径；最后，情景构建为当下改革阶段的应急管理机制建设提供了一种策略和方法。
|
| 关 键 词： | 情景构建 风险分析 应急准备 应急管理 |
Evolution of scenario construction theory and its enlightenments to emergency management in China |
| |
| WANG Yongming.Evolution of scenario construction theory and its enlightenments to emergency management in China[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(9):57-62. |
| |
| Authors: | WANG Yongming |
| |
| Affiliation: | (Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C.& National Academy of Governance,Beijing 100089,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In the 1970s,the scenario construction as a risk management tool entered the view of civil defense and emergency management practitioners,and gradually became the core strategy of emergency preparedness in the western developed countries.The risk assessment specifications in Germany,Britain,Denmark,Netherlands and other countries have put forward the standardization requirements to the scenario construction method.As an important supporting strategy for the risk analysis and emergency preparedness,the scenario construction is of great significance to the current emergency management work in China.Firstly,the scenario construction can promote the related subjects to carry out the solid risk analysis and risk communication.Secondly,the scenario construction provides a constructional path of emergency capacity based on risk driving for the related subjects.Finally,the scenario construction provides a strategy and method for the construction of emergency management mechanism in the current stage of reform. |
| |
| Keywords: | scenario construction risk analysis emergency preparedness emergency management |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《中国安全生产科学技术》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《中国安全生产科学技术》下载全文 |
