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中文摘要: 利用我国500多年旱涝资料，分析陕西及其东部区域历史上发生的旱涝周期及气候突变，发现陕西旱涝存在22年、169年左右的变化周期，陕西1645年左右发生过气候突变，分别比华北地区早6～7年，比华东地区早40～50年。同时分析近50年气候资料发现，陕西及东部地区降水均存在着一定的周期变化，且变化有所差异。定义了陕北区域旱涝指数，在未来十年，陕北地区旱涝变化趋势是正常偏旱。
中文关键词: 旱涝周期，气候突变，旱涝指数
Abstract:Based on the data of the Drought/Flood in the northwest, the north, and the east of China for the last 530 years, the abrupt change and the periodicity of the Drought/Flood series are analyzed. The results indicate that there is a period of 22-year and 169-year respectively in Shaanxi and an obvious abrupt change in Shaanxi in 1645,which is earlier about 6～7 years than North China, about 40～50 years than East of China. There is some periodicity characters of precipitation in Shaanxi and East China in recent 5 decades, and the variation is different. The dry and warm climate will continue to 2010s in northern Shaanxi, this is the facts that the ecosystem managing project must be faced.
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基金项目:陕西省生态办项目(1999年003)资助项目
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引用文本：
王川,杜继稳,杜川利,袁君健,2005.陕西及我国东部区域气候变化研究[J].气象,31(4):22-26.
,2005.Analysis of Variation of Climate in North Shaanxi and Relationshipwith Other Regions for Last 530 Years[J].Meteor Mon,31(4):22-26.
王川,杜继稳,杜川利,袁君健,2005.陕西及我国东部区域气候变化研究[J].气象,31(4):22-26.
,2005.Analysis of Variation of Climate in North Shaanxi and Relationshipwith Other Regions for Last 530 Years[J].Meteor Mon,31(4):22-26.