日平均计算方法对气温统计值的影响
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公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106038)和陕西省气象局气象科技创新基金项目(2012M 50)共同资助


Influence of Calculation Methods on Calculated Daily Mean Temperature
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    摘要:

    为了弄清不同日平均计算方法对气温统计值的影响,利用陕西6个基准站的定时气温资料分别进行24次观测与4次观测,以及4次与3次观测值计算所得日平均气温计算值的差异分析,并对1961—2010年的3次、4次、24次计算的年平均气温序列进行均一性的惩罚最大F检验(PMFT)。结果表明:24次气温定时值计算的日平均气温均值高于4次值,平均差值为013 ℃,标准差为039 ℃,两者差值在秋季较大。4次比3次日平均气温值平均偏低014 ℃,标准差为085 ℃,一年中,夏季差值最大。不同次数的日平均气温计算方法可引起月、年平均气温值02 ℃甚至以上的升降。24次气温值的使用可以使单站的气温增暖速率提高003~004 ℃/10a。但日平均气温计算方法的改变不会造成气温序列的非均一。

    Abstract:

    In order to understand of the influence of different calculation methods on the calculated daily mean temperature, an analysis is made of the difference in daily average temperature calculated from the observations between 24 and 4 times per day, as well as 4 and 3 times per day, by using the temperature obtained by manual observation data from 1961 to 2010 from 6 national base stations in Shaanxi. The homogeneity Penalized Maximal 〖WTBX〗F〖WTBZ〗 Test (PMFT) is carried out with the long temperature sequence, which consists of manual 4 and 24 times per day observation or 3 and 4 times per day times observation. The results indicate that the 24 times per day average temperature is higher than that from the 4 times per day calculation; the average difference is 013 ℃; and standard deviation is 039 ℃, with the biggest difference in autumn. The 4 times per day daily average temperature is 014 ℃ lower than that calculated by 3 times per day observation, and the standard deviation is 085 ℃, with the biggest difference value in summer. The monthly or annual mean temperature calculated from temperature observations with different number of observations varies, with the difference being about± 02 ℃. If the 24 times per day temperature is used, for a single station, the temperatures increasing rate may be 003 to 004 ℃/10a higher. Nevertheless, the calculation method (changing from 4 times to 24 times, or from 3 times to 4 times) will not change the inhomogeneity of a temperature sequence.

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李亚丽,妙娟利,贺音.日平均计算方法对气温统计值的影响[J].气象科技,2013,41(1):88~92

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2011-09-29
  • 定稿日期:2012-09-07
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2013-02-01
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