城市道路交通承载力研究综述

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2022.06.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 多年来，广泛的应用场景和领域使交通承载力的基础理论和量化研究方法等成为学术界的热点研究问题。作为城市交通可持续发展的重要指标，交通承载力向上与城市交通规划，向下与机动车需求管理融合，可以得到多个延伸的科研选题。在特定的时空网络中，一定的资源和环境约束条件下，城市道路交通承载力就是道路网络或基础设施现有或未来的承载状态，即交通资源达到最优配置、交通环境稳定时，道路交通设施单元或系统的承载能力或阈值。本文通过系统梳理城市道路交通承载力的国内外研究现状，从基础理论、量化研究方法和实践应用这3方面提出存在问题和发展建议。现有城市道路交通承载力研究存在理论体系不完善，评价量化方法有效性难以保证，评价指标选取缺少标准化，复杂系统承载力缺乏综合的内外部耦合协调分析，以及应用技术方法落后等问题。首先，未来可以建立较完善的交通承载力理论体系；其次，标准化评价指标，建立有效评价模型和耦合协调模型，研究交通系统内外部的耦合协调机制，提出协同优化策略；最后，改进应用技术方法，拓展自身及交叉领域应用。为城市道路交通承载力研究提供理论保障，为促进我国交通可持续文明发展建设进程提供有力支撑。

关键词: 城市交通, 交通承载力, 交通资源环境, 评价模型, 耦合协调, 可持续发展

Abstract: The fundamental theory and quantitative research on urban traffic carrying capacity have been a hot issue for many years because of its extensive applications. As an important indicator of sustainable urban traffic, the integration of traffic carrying capacity upward with traffic planning and downward with traffic demand management can obtain a number of extended research topics. In a specific urban road network at a specific time, the traffic carrying capacity is the current or future carrying state of the road network or infrastructure with a certain number of resources and environmental constraints, i.e., the carrying capacity or its threshold value of a road traffic facility unit or system when the optimal allocation of traffic resources is achieved and the traffic environment is stable. This paper reviews the related studies on traffic carrying capacity systematically and summarizes the existing limitations and suggestions from three aspects of basic theory, quantitative method, and practical application. The limitations of the existing studies include a lack of an imperfect theoretical system, difficulty to guarantee the effectiveness of the evaluation methods, a lack of standard evaluation index, a lack of comprehensive internal and external coupling coordination analysis of complex system carrying capacity, and a lack of advanced technologies and methodologies. In the future, a relatively perfect theoretical system of traffic carrying capacity can be established. Secondly, effective evaluation models and coupling coordination models can be established by standardizing the evaluation indexes to study the internal and external coupling coordination mechanism of the traffic system and propose cooperative optimization strategies. Finally, the application technologies and methodologies should be improved, and self-application and cross-fieldapplications should be expanded. It provides a theoretical guarantee for the study of urban road traffic carrying capacity and provides strong support for the development of a sustainable civilization of transportation in China.

Key words: urban traffic, traffic carrying capacity, traffic resource and environment, evaluation model, coupling coordination, sustainable development

中图分类号:

U491

李小静, 王花兰, 范媛媛, 傅忠宁. 城市道路交通承载力研究综述[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2022, 22(6): 15-25.

LI Xiao-jing, WANG Hua-lan, FAN Yuan-yuan, FU Zhong-ning. Literature Review on Urban Road Traffic Carrying Capacity[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2022, 22(6): 15-25.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2022.06.002

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2022/V22/I6/15

参考文献

[1] 侯德劭. 城市交通承载力研究[D]. 上海: 同济大学, 2008. [HOU D S. Study on carrying capacity of urban traffic[D]. Shanghai: Tongji University, 2008.]

[2] 王红旗, 王国强, 杨会彩, 等. 中国重要生态功能区资源环境承载力评价指标体系研究[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2017. [WANG H Q, WANG G Q, YANG H C, et al. Study on evaluation index system of resource and environment carrying capacity of important ecological function areas in China[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2017.]

[3] PARK R E, BURGESS E W. Introduction to the science of sociology[M]. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1921.

[4] GAO S, YUAN Z. Models and evaluation for urban traffic carrying capacity[J]. Applied Mechanics and Materials, 2013, 409/410: 1258-1261.

[5] 袁振洲, 邓娜, 闫欣欣. 交通承载力与环境承载力的耦合协调度: 基于城市群的实证分析[J]. 北京交通大学学报, 2017, 41(4): 123-128. [YUAN Z Z, DENG N, YAN X X. Coupling coordination between traffic carrying capacity and environment carrying capacity: An empirical analysis of urban agglomerations in China [J]. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University, 2017, 41(4): 123-128.]

[6] WU L. Traffic carrying capacity and improving measures of Shenzhen[J]. Applied Mechanics and Materials, 2012, 253/255: 1605-1610.

[7] 詹歆晔, 郁亚娟, 郭怀成, 等. 特大城市交通承载力定量模型的建立与应用[J]. 环境科学, 2008, 28(9): 1923- 1931. [ZHAN X Y, YU Y J, GUO H C, et al. Modeling and application of metropolitan transportation support capacity[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2008, 28(9): 1923-1931.]

[8] 蒋恵园, 黄永燊. 交通资源环境承载力预警研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2015, 15(2): 10-16. [JIANG H Y, HUANG Y S. Study on early warning of traffic resources and environment carrying capacity[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2015, 15(2): 10-16.]

[9] 卫振林, 申金升, 徐一飞. 交通环境容量与交通环境承载力的探讨[J]. 经济地理, 1997, 17(1): 97-99. [WEI Z L, SHEN J S, XU Y F. Discussion about traffic environmental capacity and traffic environmental carrying capacity[J]. Economic Geography, 1997, 17(1): 97-99]

[10] 刘志硕, 申金升, 张智文, 等. 基于交通环境承载力的城市交通容量的确定方法及应用[J]. 中国公路学报, 2004, 17(1): 70-73, 78. [LIU Z S, SHEN J S, ZHANG Z W, et al. Method for calculating the urban traffic capacity based on traffic environment carrying capacity and its applications[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2004, 17(1): 70-73, 78.]

[11] 杨日辉, 王首绪. 基于交通环境承载力的公路网交通量预测[J]. 公路, 2006(4): 182-185. [YANG R H, WANG S X. Prediction of traffic volume of highway network based on traffic environmental carrying capacity [J]. Highway, 2006(4): 182-185.]

[12] 张红. 国内外资源环境承载力研究述评[J]. 理论学刊, 2007(10): 80-83. [ZHANG H. A review on the research of domestic and international resources environmental bearing capacity[J]. Theory Journal, 2007(10): 80-83.]

[13] 齐喆, 张贵祥. 北京市交通综合承载力评价与提升策略[J]. 生态经济, 2016, 32(1): 82-84, 124. [QI Z, ZHANG G X. Research on evaluation and development strategy of comprehensive traffic carrying capacity in Beijing[J]. Ecological Economy, 2016, 32(1): 82-84, 124.]

[14] 王振坡, 朱丹, 王丽艳. 区域协同下京津冀城市群城市综合承载力评价[J]. 首都经济贸易大学学报, 2018, 20 (6): 73- 81. [WANG Z P, ZHU D, WANG L Y. The evaluation of urban comprehensive carrying capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration under regional collaboration[J]. Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business, 2018, 20(6): 73-81.]

[15] LIU Y, LU S. Early-warning of socioeconomic-traffic resource-environment compound system carrying capacity in Yangtze River economic belt[C]. Iop Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2019, 227(5): 052057.

[16] 李荣. 城市交通系统人车路演化建模与承载力分析 [D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2013. [LI R. Modeling on the population-vehicle-road evolution and analyzing of carrying capacity on urban traffic system[D]. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2013.]

[17] 吴建军. 城市交通网络拓扑结构复杂性研究[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2008. [WU J J. Studies on the complexity of topology structure in the urban traffic network[D]. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2008.]

[18] 王世能, 罗超. 基于路网承载力的小汽车发展调控研究 [J]. 重庆交通大学学报 (社会科学版), 2018, 18(2): 71- 75. [WANGS N, LUO C. Regulation of car development based on the capacity of road network[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University (Social Science Edition), 2018, 18(2): 71-75.]

[19] 杨国菁, 吴建军. 具有圈性结构的城市交通网络承载能力分析[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2015, 12(4): 36- 42. [YANG G J, WU J J. Carrying capacity analysis of the urban traffic network under different circuitness[J]. Complex Systems and Complexity Science, 2015, 12(4): 36-42.]

[20] 邓娜. 基于自组织临界性的城市交通路网承载力计算方法研究[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2018. [DENG N. Research on the calculation method of urban traffic road network carrying capacity based on the self-organized criticality[D]. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2018.]

[21] 朱吉双, 张宁. 城市道路网络承载能力影响因素分析 [J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2008, 8(1): 92- 97. [ZHU J S, ZHANG N. Analysis of factors in affecting the loading capacity of urban road networks[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2008, 8(1): 92-97.]

[22] 熊志华. 基于实时数据的道路承载力研究[J]. 公路交通科技, 2013, 30(3): 125-135. [XIONG Z H. Research on road bearing capacity based on real-time data[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2013, 30(3): 125-135.]

[23] 卢凯, 汪丽, 吴蔚, 等. 信号控制下路段交通承载能力计算及交叉口配时优化模型[J]. 东南大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 51(2): 333-341. [LU K, WANG L, WU W, et al. Calculation of road section traffic carrying capacity and timing optimization model of intersection under signal control[J]. Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition), 2021, 51(2): 333-341.]

[24] 傅成红. 城市群综合交通运输承载力及协调性评价[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2017, 17(2): 21-27. [FU C H. Evaluation on integrated transportation capacity and coordination in the urban agglomeration[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2017, 17(2): 21-27.]

[25] 王秋平, 韩霞. 历史街区非机动车交通环境心理承载力研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2015, 15(6): 127-132. [WANG Q P, HAN X. Psychological carrying capacity of non-motorized traffic environment in historical districts[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2015, 15(6): 127-132.]

[26] 王炜, 陈学武, 陆建. 城市交通系统可持续发展理论体系研究 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2004. [WANG W, CHEN X W, LU J. Research on sustainable development theory system of urban traffic system[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2004]

[27] GAO Y, QU Z, SONG X, et al. Modeling of urban road network traffic carrying capacity based on equivalent traffic flow[J]. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 2022(115): 102462.

[28] 邓娜, 袁振洲. 基于改进时空耗散法的交通承载力理论模型研究[J]. 公路, 2017, 62(6): 211-215. [DENG N, YUAN Z Z. Research on theoretical model of traffic carrying capacity based on improved time and space exhaustion method[J]. Highway, 2017, 62(6): 211-215.]

[29] CHAO C, ZHANG Y. Study on traffic carrying capacity of Tangshan city[C]. International Conference on Computer Science and Service System (CSSS), 2011: 2642-2646.

[30] 涂圣文, 段力, 赵振华, 等. 城市结点高快路网络承载能力分析模型[J]. 铁道科学与工程学报, 2017, 14(4): 872-878. [TU S W, DUAN L, ZHAO Z H, et al. Analysis model on the loading capacity of freeways and expressways network in city area[J]. Journal of Railway Science and Engineering, 2017, 14(4): 872-878.]

[31] SHI J, CHEN L, QIAO F, et al. Simulation and analysis of the carrying capacity for road networks using a gridbased approach[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering (English Edition), 2020, 7(4): 498-506.

[32] 陈伟, 李宗平. 交通枢纽换乘系统有效承载力仿真研究[J]. 计算机仿真, 2021, 38(3): 46-50. [CHEN W, LI Z P. Simulation study on effective bearing capacity of transfer system in transportation hub[J]. Computer Simulation, 2021, 38(3): 46-50.]

[33] WEI X, SHEN L, LI J, et al. An alternative method for assessing urban transportation carrying capacity[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2022, 142: 109299.

[34] IIDA Y. Methodology for maximum capacity of road network[J]. Translation of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 1972, 22(7): 147-150.

[35] SUMALEE A, KURAUCHI F. Network capacity reliability analysis considering traffic regulation after a major disaster[J]. Networks and Spatial Economics, 2006, 6(3/4): 205-219.

[36] ARASAN V T, ARKATKAR S S. Derivation of capacity standards for intercity roads carrying heterogeneous traffic using computer simulation[J]. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2011, 16(1): 218-229.

[37] SHARIFF M A, FAHEEM M I. A study on traffic carrying capacity of urban arterials under mixed traffic conditions[J]. International Journal of Engineering Research and Industrial Applications, 2013, 6(3): 209- 228.

[38] MALAVASI G, MOLKOVá T, RICCI S, et al. A synthetic approach to the evaluation of the carrying capacity of complex railway nodes[J]. Journal of Rail Transport Planning and Management, 2014, 4: 28-42.

[39] VOLODIN A, GUDKOVA N, ASTAFIEV A. Impact of carrying capacity on the functioning of the railway network[J]. MATEC Web of Conferences, 2020, 329: 01015.

[40] 王爱苹, 马红娟, 孙贵玲. 多层次模糊综合评价在城市交通承载力评价中的应用[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2015, 45(19): 81-88. [WANG A P, MA H J, SUN G L. Application of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in the urban traffic carrying capacity[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2015, 45(19): 81- 88.]

[41] 徐艳艳, 于洋, 胡萍. 华北地区交通环境承载力预警分析[J]. 公路, 2016(4): 169-173. [XU Y Y, YU Y, HU P. Early warning of traffic environment carrying capacity of Northern China[J]. Highway, 2016(4): 169-173.]

[42] 徐艳艳, 李国柱, 徐喆, 等. 北京市交通环境承载力动态评价及障碍因子诊断[J]. 公路交通科技, 2017, 34 (6): 122-128. [XU Y Y, LI G Z, XU Z, et al. Dynamic evaluation of traffic environment bearing capacity of Beijing and diagnosis of obstacle factor[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2017, 34(6): 122-128.]

[43] 徐静 . 城镇化发展中江苏城市道路交通承载力综合评价[J]. 公路, 2016, 61(3): 121-125. [XU J. Comprehensive evaluation of road traffic capacity in Jiangsu province during the process of urbanization[J]. Highway, 2016, 61(3): 121-125.]

[44] 谢奔一, 黄永燊. 交通运输与经济系统耦合协调的研究[J]. 铁道运输与经济, 2016, 38(6): 29-34. [XIE B Y, HUANG Y S. Study on coupling and coordination between transportation and economic system[J]. Railway Transport and Economy, 2016, 38(6): 29-34.]

[45] 韩瑞玲, 杨光, 张晓燕, 等. 石家庄市经济-交通-环境系统耦合协调研究[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2019, 35 (12): 1541-1549. [HAN R L, YANG G, ZHANG X Y. Study on the coupling coordination of economictransportation-environment system in Shijiazhuang city [J]. 2019, 35(12): 1541-1549.]

[46] 陈果, 陈志. 湖北省交通基础设施投资与经济发展的时空耦合协调研究[J]. 铁道运输与经济, 2021, 43(5): 51- 57. [CHEN G, CHEN Z. Spatiotemporal coupling coordination between transportation infrastructure investment and economic development in Hubei province [J]. Railway Transport and Economy, 2021, 43(5): 51- 57.]

[47] 杨忠振, 苗国强, 冯涛. 环境承载力约束条件下城市最大乘用车保有量预测[J]. 中国公路学报, 2006, 19(6): 92- 97. [YANG Z Z, MIAO G Q, FENG T. Forecast on maximum car ownership with constraint of environmental capacity in urban[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2006, 19(6): 92-97.]

[48] 郑猛, 张晓东. 依据交通承载力确定土地适宜开发强度: 以北京中心城控制性详细规划为例[J]. 城市交通, 2008, 6(5): 15-18. [ZHENG M, ZHANG X D. Determine appropriate land-use intensity according to road capacity: A case study of detailed control planning for central district in Beijing[J]. Urban Transport of China, 2008, 6(5): 15-18.]

[49] 周军, 谭泽芳. 交通承载力评估在密度分区及容积率测算中的方法研究及应用实践: 以深圳为例[J]. 城市规划学刊, 2020(1): 85-92. [ZHOU J, TAN Z F. A research on method and application of traffic carrying capacity evaluation in density zoning and FAR measurement: Taking Shenzhen as an example[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2020(1): 85-92.]

[50] MIHARJA M, SJAFRUDDIN A H. Urban development control based on transportation carrying capacity[C]. Iop Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2017, 70: 012019.

[51] 贾顺平, 彭宏勤, 刘爽. 基于居民出行特性与路网承载力的城市交通状态研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2011, 11(5): 81- 85. [JIA S P, PENG H Q, LIU S. Urban traffic state estimation considering resident travel characteristics and road network capacity[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2011, 11(5): 81-85.] [52] KYUSHIK O, YCUNWOO J, DONGKAN L, et al. Determining development density using the urban carrying capacity assessment system[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2005, 73: 1-15. [53] JIA L, WANG W, YU H, et al. Tourism development, traffic carrying capacity and residents' income level[J]. Transformations in Business and Economics, 2019, 18 (3): 485-499. [54] ZHOU J, MURPHY E, CORCORAN E. Integrating road carrying capacity and traffic congestion into the excess commuting framework: the case of Los Angeles[J]. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 2020(1): 119-137.